The current few days is the high point of the campaign for McCain. The poll that had him up by 10 among likely voters simply shows how much polsters are unsure of who will come to vote. The idea that that poll has any reality to it is purely a McCain fantasy.
In the gallup poll, (McCain 50%, Obama 46%) that is about where it was in February and this is right after McCain's convention. The preponderance of events over the next two months will inviteably move the numbers in Obama's favor. This will be Obama 51 McCain 45 or 46. Historically that is a close American election in the modern era since 1896. BTW before 2000 and 2004 there had never been two elections in a row that were less than 5% wins for the winning candidate (that is since 1896, the first election in which both parties morphed into some semblance of their policy positions today) What are the chances that we will have a third in a row?? Not very good because trends in states tend to break in one direction or another after two election cycles. Trends today are breaking left, not right. So....the possibility of McCain winning by more than 5% cannot be dismissed but is highly unlikely.
It is true that since 1992 we are in an era of close elections. However, the stategic circumstances driving this election all favor Obama. The historical trends in the country that exist today causing rifts in cultural outlooks will keep the election relatively close, but in the end the strategic circumstances will not be able to be overcome by McCain. So....Obama by 5 or 6%, a close election by historical standards but a "landslide" compared to recent elections.
Most are giving Palin way too much credit. She is a paper mache candidate. Once she makes one mistake on a major point or issue she will rapidly become a caricature of herself. To be kind, her personality is an acquired taste and she is full of "irrational exhuberance", so to speak, quite literally in judging by her religious views. In the last 3 weeks of any campaign, after the VP debate the VP picks are virtual ghosts and ALL attention is focused back on the top of the ticket. That is when Obama will pull away a little bit, to an 8 or 9 point lead. It will be closer on election day, lets be honest for "cultural" ie racial reasons.
In my opinion the reason McCain has risen is not Palin, Palin is a divisive figure and would not be responsible for such a rise. The reason is McCain. His speech was good. It moved me, a person not inclined to support him (and not to support Barack either). My Dad was crying. The man is an impressive person even if you don't like him. Palin is a silly joke. Obama should laugh her off and simply call her out of her cloistered coccoon of irrationality and imbecility and sappy, snotty retorts and chanllenge her to answer questions and then question McCain's judgement for choosing such a non-entity.
My two cents.
Hope all is well.
John.
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3 comments:
Well said, and I wish I shared your sober view of the American public. Unfortunately, I think the media climate ensures that the election will be much closer than 5 percent, because the media needs the horse race to keep the viewers interested. That's why they're pretending to take Palin seriously.
And I think the "cultural" question will lower Barack Obama's ceiling significantly. I happen to believe in the Bradley effect, and that white, Christian voters will use the "historic" Palin nomination as an excuse to vote against the black candidate.
If I had to guess today, I'd say McCain has a slightly better than 50 percent chance of winning the election. The rest of the world will ridicule us for it, but I suspect a slight majority of Americans will opt for McCain. That said, I really hope you're right and I'm wrong.
Joy, in my view, ObamaMania was/is/will be ALMOST as silly as Paliniomania.
At least Obama worship was based upon eloquence and some victories at the polls. Paliniomania is based upon what I have NO idea, none.
But, the two manias no matter the reasons for them are indicative of a profoundly UNHEALTHY populace in terms of our ability to be citizens.
ObamaMania is not dead, just in hibernation for a few weeks. As Paliniomania weakens a bit, ObamaMania will crank up again.
The irony of the McCain campaign is the very celebrity he derided in Obama is what revived his moribund campaign: a Palin mania based upon nothing. It is beginning to subside. Then McCain, by October 15 will be down where the US banking system will be at that point.
Obama understands the power of pacing and the ebb and flow and rhythmic nature of this campaign.
The problem for Obama is that when he takes office the US banking system will have almost ceased to function.
John.
I'm just glad you still think he'll be elected. I agree that political star-gazing is silly, but in the current culture, political celebrity is the way campaigns are run -- has been since Reagan. Americans respond to marketing, not to issues or substance. That, as Walter Cronkite used to say, is the way it is.
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