Economic Statistics+SB prediction+rating the spouses

Econ stats are bandied about in the modern age like so much garbage. People use them to make arguments for their side of the economic debate.
Many are unaware, however, that the government's way of calculating such basic econ stats like unemployment and GDP have changed drastically over time. Is it no surprise that the changes have almost all led to "higher" GDPs and "lower" unemployment and inflation?

So, whenever you see those comparisons of GDP over time or inflation over time or whatever category, just remember that GDP calculated today is done totally differently and not necessarily more accurately than it was in 1960 or 1970, for instance. For example, today the making of food at fast-food joints like McDonald's is counted as "Manufacturing" when calculating GDP. It sounds funny but it is sad and true. Its really a sign of desperation and there are many examples like that.

My Super Bowl prediction.......Pats 48.....Giants 17. Another boring game in the tradition of many super bowls from the 1980s like Raiders/Redskins, 49ers/Broncos and the like and that great 1994 game 49ers/Chargers.

Now, important political thoughts!!! Rating the presidential spouses on the "hot" factor....from a straight guy's perspective :)
#1 Cindy McCain(gotta admit, I know she's old but flat out gorgeous) #2 Michelle Obama(a little bit tall for my taste, I'm 5'10" and I thinks she's taller than me,but beautiful) #3 Anne Romney(pretty woman and I admire her battle with MS) #4 Bill Clinton(big red noses turn me on!!hehe) #5 Irma Huckabee(or whatever her name is, a kind and gracious lady but, lets just say Wild Bill's big red nose would improve her appearance :)

More soon, hope all is well.

John.

The Economy

Let's see. Nobel Prize Economist Joseph Stiglitz states that we are at the beginning of the most fundamental and profound economic crisis since the 1930s.

BUT!! Jack Welch, self-promoting, viagra-popping, overrated, hubristic former CEO says everyone should "just take a deep breath, we'll be fine."

Hmm....who should I trust the judgement of??

By the way, a great guy to google on the economic situation is Michael Panzer.

Glad to see an Obama win last night but Clinton is still on track to win. It is so ironic to see the Clintons sucking all the vitality and life out of politics.

John.

Predictions for demos in SC and a rant

Obama 44%, Clinton 34%, Edwards 20%, 2% to various other candidates.

Hope you have a good weekend. I never have time to write anything substantial here. The internet is the most overrated technology in history. If you think the internet is going to "change the world" see the present situation in Burma. 1988:Monks get heads smashed in, thousands imprisoned................2007:Technophiles and Thomas L. Friedmaniacs, "oh, that won't happen now, governments can't oppress people anymore because of the internet!!" Result in Burma; monks get heads smashed in, thousands imprisoned.

Ultimately, the internet is a far more effective tool for government to oppress people and spy on people, than it is for people to change their government.

John.

Senator Clinton

Senator Clinton was in my hometown of Salinas,CA yesterday courting the latino vote and support from the United Farm Workers Union.
This city is "majority-minority" with about 60% Mexican American in a city of about 150,000.
John.

My first inclination

My first inclination regarding this coming election in November was that it would be a competition between the two most sound-bite oriented phony, false and wooden politicians that were running on both sides. Well, after a brief brush with giddy and irrational optimism following Iowa, I now realize I was right the first time.
Ladies and gentleman prepare yourselves for that exciting night now!!! That rip-roaring debate somewhere around mid-October. Clinton and Romney!!! Yeah!! See which one has memorized their focus group tested sound-bites correctly designed to appeal to single-mothers with daughters between 10-12 whose income is between 15,000 and 15,500 dollars and who take their girls to soccer practice daily and attend church weekly, oh yes...and whose main concern is a dirty bomb going off in Cleveland because they live in Chickenshit, Ohio.
I can't wait. But no results anywhere now will change my mind:Romney versus Clinton....in the end they are the ones backed by their respective parties machines and they are the ones who tell the voters what they want to hear.
The only thing that might throw a wrench in that match-up is the specter of a collapsing economy. Incessant sound-bites are not, to mind, what people want to hear as they see the economy in collapse. Though maybe I'm wrong there too, maybe thats what they want even more in bad times.

John.

What a terrible day

Well, that last post I must have been either stoned or drunk when I made it :) Dumb nicknames, and wildly off the mark guesses!! I was just in a bit of a silly mood and I continue to overestimate Huckabee's appeal. Although, some slight shifts and he might have won SC even though he did not deserve to with that pandering at the end.

Then yesterday, my mom, who has multiple sclerosis, had a seizure and had to go to the hospital. She's doing better now and back home. It was quite disconcerting however, because she had not had a seizure since 2004 I believe. I thought she was at least overcoming that problem but it reared its ugly head again yesterday.

All is better now, I've had no sleep in 24 hours but with coffee and crackers (I love saltene crackers, I didn't mean the racists hehe) I have survived and thrived. In the words of the inimitable Nietschze (which I disagree with) "whatever doesn't kill me will make me stronger"...yeah, right :)

Hope you are well.

John.

More Predictions(uninformed guesses)

Nevada Democratic Caucus: Vulnerable Little Woman 37%, 'Bama 43%,$400 Haircut 20%

SC Rebub Primary: Soldier for Jesus 35%, Philandering Pilot 30%, Polygamist 20%, Prune Faced Fossil 15%

Hope everyone has a good weekend!!

John.

The Primacy of Politics

I still believe in the importance of politics. I believe a nation's political culture sets the tone and either fosters or undermines all its other cultures from economic to religious. This is true because we live within a nation governed by a State, and despite the purpoted "death of the state" promulagated in the last 20 years by the historically illiterate, we still live within a State structure. The State has changed forms in the last 50 and 100 years as it did in the 50 and 100 before that, but it is still a State.

A great book to read on this topic of the primacy of Politics in American life is "The Rise of American Democracy:Jefferson to Lincoln" by Sean Wilentz. It is astonishingly interesting and brilliant and shows how the seeds of civil war were embedded in the political structure of the nation from the beginning. And if you are interested in elections it literally has AT LEAST 30 to 40 in depth pages on EVERY American election between 1796 and 1860. It helps on understand how elections have evolved into what they are today.

John.

Disappointed

I was very disappointed by the results in Michigan and by the Democratic debate. Romney would make a terrible President. In the debate all the spontanaity(sp?) ideas and fun seemed to be soaked out of the 3 candidates overnight. It was more like a 3-way press conference. It felt like a debate in 1996 or some other placid time.
John.

Predictions

Here are my predictions for the top 3 finishers in tomorrow's Michigan Republican Primary (this is NOT what I want to happen): Romney 34%;Huckabee 27%; McCain 25%.

Predictions are kind of ridiculous to make, but always fun to make and think about.

John.

hello

Hello, just starting this blog, my name is John. I know a little bit about a little bit of topics, and the rest of it I'll make up.....feel free to make comments of derision or praise......
John.