The war in Georgia is more complicated than surface analysis. One can only understand what happened by realizing that Georgia never made a clean break with Moscow in the sense that it had rid itself of elements within its government and intel services whose loyalties lie with Russia not with Georgia. (btw this is true of the entire CIS space and large parts of eastern europe)
The war is real, but some of its elements have a made for television aspect. For instance it just so happens that cameras are around when Russian tanks are rolling over hapless Georgian police, or to film Russians leading away Georgian hostages and American Humvees.
My point is, yes the Russian operation's tactical goal is to establish effective control over Georgia. However, the more important strategic goal, aimed directly at the US and in cooperation with elements of the Georgian government whose loyalty lies with Moscow for various reasons, is to move US policy into a path of confronting Moscow, a confrontation that the US is wholly unprepared for and Moscow is fully prepared for and has been preparing for more than a decade.
My advice, for what its worth (nothing) would be to be conciliatory in public and perhaps in private to try to deceive Moscow, make no overt moves at all in Russia's Eurasian sphere of influence BUT drive like hell to prepare for a major war in the next two years or so in a desperate attempt to deter Moscow so that war will never occur and if god forbid it does we will smash them to pieces. This would involve, among much else, getting out of Iraq, Afghan and modernizing and increasing our strategic forces immediately.
So when some say that the Georgians are partially responsible for provoking the war I say "yes, but which Georgians??" There are double and triple games being played.
As long as we hold together we'll be ok, that's hard in an election year though when our passions are so stirred up we often don't think straight.
John.
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Well said. I think the Georgians did cause this conflagration, but they did so under the mistaken understanding that they had purchased help in Washington. Most Americans have no idea how close to disaster we came. Had McCain's lobbyist foreign policy expert Randy Scheunemann been successful, as he was with Latvia, in getting Georgia into NATO, the U.S. would have been obligated to respond to Russia, and as you point out, totally unprepared.
Best,
Joy
The Georgians may have caused it in the short term sense making an overt move in the open to try to move forces into a secessionist territory. We don't disagree there.
It appears we disagree as to the overall cause when taking into account the facts that go beyond the last few weeks.
The Russians have been fomenting secessionist activities in Ossetia and Abkhazia for years in an obvious attempt to undermine Georgia's government. They have handed out Russian passports to Ossetians, arguably as a pretext to "protect Russian citizens". A massive cyber attack was launched upon Georgia that originated in Russia before any open fighting began.
I guess my more "conspiritorial" point, if you will, is that Georgia, and all of the so-called "former Soviet Republics" are still influenced by Russia in a major way to the point where it is not far fetched to imagine that elements of the Georgian government are so compromised by Russian intelligence services that the actions of that government could be influenced so as to be in the interests of Russia and not Georgia. That would include a suicidal provocation of Russia giving Russia the excuse it was always looking for to strangle to death what was left of Georgian independence, which they are in the process of doing. If my hypothesis is correct, and knowing how truly professional and brilliant the Russian intelligence services are and how truly vulnerable and weak the post-Soviet states are I think I am correct, then we may expect more of these "provocations" in the near future coming from ex-Soviet states in order to open the way for Russian overt actions.
So you see, all is right with the world, we disagree again!!
:) Hope you and the family are well.
John.
whew! That was close! Too much disagreement is bad for the politics. But seriously, I think the Russians may very well be making mischief in the provinces, which include the birthplace of Stalin, but I'm skeptical that the Saakashvilli crowd is suicidal. I think this was a case of the neocons in the U.S. overpromising and underdelivering. The Bush doctrine is junk, and this incident proves it. We cannot simply establish a sphere of influence on Russia's doorstep and not expect them to respond. Right now it's Putin 10 (or more), Dubya zilch.
By the way, Poland's acceptance of US missile defense might be viewed as just such a provocation.
Ukraine's potential denial of Russian access to its Sevastopol Naval Headquarters and fleet may be another.
John.
Joy,
When I disagree with you in particular I usually check my premises because I know you are extremely well informed and don't come to opinions without informing your self. I have no doubt in this matter the same is true.
I think on some level our disagreement is rooted in the fact that I think Bush and his crowd are small time crooks while Putin and his group are like the true professionals, the mob bosses, if you will. They are not only operating out of greed but out of obsessions and passions and hatreds that go way back and are rooted in history.
They are playing for much larger stakes than the Bushies, they view those morons as just the naive simple Americans they are about to knock off their arrogant, ignorant asses. Unfortunately, we are all gonna pay the price.
I have a feeling and a thought that the political differences that exist between us Americans are about to be subsumed by much larger issues of world shattering proportions.
John.
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