One mistake those on the Left often make in regard to Russia is to regard every foreign policy initiative by Russia as a response to something the US is doing. This has been most evident in the debate on the Georgian question. Even if, from a fundamentally legalistic point of view, Russian actions in Georgia are legal and Georgia is not a "perfect democracy"(and these assumptions are dubious, especially the first), that does not mean from a US perspective that we must treat both sides equally.
We must operate in a world in which there is a fundamental inequality between nations in terms of their power and their willingness to wield it in a way that affects the US. Georgia, by any logical, sane analysis, is not a military threat to the US or even to Russia. The idea that because the US has trained some small number of Georgian commandos that that is an "aggressive and threatening policy" against Russia, a continental sized nation of 140 million and armed to the teeth is nonsensical. It baffles why the Left, usually sensitive to small nations in competition with the powerful, is making this argument.
The new Russian policy of "respecting the sovereignty of Georgia but not her territorial integrity" is counter to Russian policy of even 1 week ago, according to the very thoughtful Strobe Talbott. Talbott went on to explain that Russia fundamentally agreed, under Yeltsin, to view the former bounderies of the Socialist Republics of the USSR as International Boundaries. Russia has now apparently shifted that policy and according to Talbott this is a highly provocative and dangerous development that necessitates a reevaluation of US policy toward Russia.
Talbott, a man I've often disagreed with but always respected was, I think, undersecretary of state in the Clinton years.
More on this soon.
John.
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4 comments:
Great analysis about the russian expansion question, and even more, about the maniqueist political view that until now has survived despite the end of the Cold War.
Would you allow me to post this article into my own blog, showing your credits of course?
Of course, go right ahead. Thanks for responding.
Of course Russia's propaganda goal is to have as many people as possible see their actions as simply "defensive" and "responsive" to "provocations". In my view, the entire Georgian operation has a strategic goal for the Russians, it is not tactical or regional like so many Americans assume. That goal is that the operation was designed to be a provocation, to generate certain aggressive actions on the part of the USA. So far, we are playing into their hands.
Two other things:the Russians know that within 18 months masses of US troops will be coming out of Iraq and preparing for other missions. Also, oil prices have leveled off so the major military expansion they've embarked on in the last 10 years will be forced to decelerate due to lack of money.
Time is not on their side, they have been preparing for hot war for at least 15 years and they have reliable allies in the SCO nations, namely China. Their time is now, whether we like it or not
Iraq was such a fiasco because it was a decision made assuming that we had no major enemies in the world. It was "war in a time of peace". The assumption most likely will be fatal.
John.
Alright professor, I will publish your article and also this comment about Russia that in my opinion is very ilustrative.
I'd be pleased to keep in touch with you, because I'm an international relations student and have a crush on strategic studies.
See you!
Paulo.
Paulo, thank you but I am not a professor but I am trying to become one by getting a Master's Degree in history. It feels good to be called "professor" though I must say!! Maybe we can make that my nickname for now :)
I consider myself a "blue-collar intellectual" meaning I consider myself of average intellect who must work and think obsessively in order to be reasonably intelligent. I also believe that everyone, in a Democracy and a Republic must educate themselves in every way possible, not simply "elites". This is the surest way to protect or restore Liberty when it has been compromised.
The American Revolution was made by intellectuals but not theoretical intellectuals. They were practical intellectuals who did the best they could at the time and who understood that politics sometimes is about ameliorating problems and not solving them all at once.
It is often the most radical and violent people who want to solve problems all at once and swiftly. They can be found on the Left and Right. Their "solutions" are seductive and increasingly popular in our age of celebrity and vast ignorance. However, their solutions always compromise Liberty and often destroy human life. Beware of such charlatans and sophists.
You may email any time. I wish I knew Portuguese so I could read your blog.
Best wishes, John.
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